Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 0.007109 0.008015 0.008995 0.010132 0.011417 0.012824 0.014482
2025-12-28 0.005817 0.007099 0.008598 0.010482 0.012791 0.015532 0.019037
2026-01-04 0.005038 0.006492 0.008290 0.010677 0.013772 0.017656 0.022918
2026-01-11 0.004514 0.006082 0.008108 0.010924 0.014747 0.019772 0.026908
2026-01-18 0.003997 0.005596 0.007743 0.010846 0.015229 0.021227 0.030098
2026-01-25 0.003605 0.005223 0.007471 0.010835 0.015762 0.022749 0.033471
2026-02-01 0.003233 0.004831 0.007122 0.010661 0.016016 0.023861 0.036313
2026-02-08 0.002983 0.004587 0.006956 0.010724 0.016601 0.025479 0.040019
2026-02-15 0.002730 0.004313 0.006712 0.010636 0.016933 0.026718 0.043222
2026-02-22 0.002582 0.004184 0.006677 0.010860 0.017757 0.028771 0.047876
2026-03-01 0.002330 0.003865 0.006311 0.010517 0.017628 0.029274 0.050010
2026-03-08 0.002137 0.003626 0.006053 0.010324 0.017720 0.030129 0.052785
2026-03-15 0.001940 0.003366 0.005743 0.010023 0.017615 0.030664 0.055091
2026-03-22 0.001874 0.003326 0.005800 0.010361 0.018649 0.033242 0.061259
2026-03-29 0.001790 0.003244 0.005779 0.010554 0.019433 0.035433 0.066905
2026-04-05 0.001721 0.003184 0.005787 0.010798 0.020325 0.037885 0.073243
2026-04-12 0.001610 0.003038 0.005630 0.010721 0.020606 0.039220 0.077546
2026-04-19 0.001519 0.002921 0.005514 0.010710 0.021010 0.040812 0.082480
2026-04-26 0.001415 0.002770 0.005323 0.010538 0.021080 0.041755 0.086182
2026-05-03 0.001348 0.002687 0.005255 0.010600 0.021619 0.043660 0.092014
2026-05-10 0.001269 0.002573 0.005119 0.010513 0.021845 0.044949 0.096656
2026-05-17 0.001229 0.002536 0.005133 0.010734 0.022724 0.047641 0.104534
2026-05-24 0.001134 0.002378 0.004888 0.010396 0.022392 0.047768 0.106800